Tracking human and social development issues.

How sustainable is migration as a climate change adaptation strategy?

by Mukundi Mutasa

When faced with a crisis, withdrawal—commonly referred to as migration—is often taken as a coping alternative. Although there are loads of factors contributing to migration, “it is now increasingly recognized that environmental degradation and climate change are major drivers in both forced and voluntary migration,” argues the United Nations Environment Programme. And with climate change impacts expected to worsen especially in the developing world, migration “is set to continue and substantially increase in scale in decades to come,” claims UNEP.

Discussions of migration in the climate change discourse prompted the wide usage of the disputed terms—environmental and/or climate refugees. Although debates persist regarding the existence of ‘environmental refugees’ (Stal, 2011), environmental change is still a major cause for forced and/or voluntary relocation in some parts of southern Africa.

Migration is double-edged. It is either voluntary or forced. “The decision to relocate, usually made at the individual or household level, characterizes voluntary migration” (Bates 2002:467). Bates further argues that “other migrants are forced or compelled to relocate by external forces. These are known as refugees.”

Migration is also either negative or positive. Firstly, it is viewed as showing that the people have failed to cope with the climate change impacts occurring in their locality. Secondly, migration is an indicator of adaptive capacity, especially when it is anticipatory migration (Mayer 2011). As such, it is those with the resources who find it easier to relocate.

Unlike forced migration which reflects failure, the second type of migration “is not forced, but voluntary; it is not reactive, but preventive; it is not precipitated, but anticipated” (Mayer 2011:6). It is this type of migration that should be recognized and facilitated in formulating national adaptation strategies, and can be enhanced by facilitating and strengthening the benefits of migrant remittances (Warner, et al, 2009).

Discussing migration is particularly important to southern Africa, a region that has suffered a number of climate-induced disasters in recent history, notably the flooding in the Zambezi Valley in Mozambique and Zimbabwe and in the Namibia’s Caprivi region, and the droughts across the breadth of the region.

Mozambique is a popular case study. Its geographical location downstream of the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers is one of the reasons contributing to its vulnerability to flooding. In 2000, Mozambique experienced the worst floods in 150 years, and the Zambezi River Valley also flooded in 2001, 2007 and 2008 (Stal 2011) displacing tens of thousands of inhabitants, destroying infrastructure, and generally making the land inhabitable during the flooding season.

While the 2000 floods displaced half a million Mozambicans (Valy 2007), the figure came down to 100,000 during the 2007 Cyclone Favio-induced floods in the Zambezi River Valley (Stal 2011). These figures are nonetheless alarming for a region that is disaster prone suggesting that durable solutions are needed to ensure the populations become resilient to climate change impacts. They are also worrying in view of the predictions that there will be over 200 million climate refugees worldwide by 2050 (Brown, 2007).

Following the floods of 2000 and 2007, the Mozambican government resettled the affected people, constructing more permanent structures nearer to schools and health centres in flood-safe areas. However, these areas suffered from drought and water stress, challenges that the displaced were not used to in their original areas, prompting multitudes of returnees to their flood-prone original homes where agricultural production was better (Stal 2011). Migration should, therefore, be well planned and resettled communities should not be put in a worse state than they were in when they were still in disaster-prone areas.

In addition to the yearly floods, droughts have also been ever-present in southern Africa. Since 1820, the region suffered severe droughts in 1820-1830, 1844-1849, 1910, 1921-1930, 1947, 1967-1973, 1981-1983, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, and 2001-2002 (CEDRISA, 2009; Iliffe, 1993 & Unganai, 1994). In early to mid-2011, the Zimbabwean newspapers have reported about climate-induced crop failure in the country.

Slow-onset disasters such as droughts have been associated with migration dating as far back as pre-colonial period. Labour migration is one of the coping mechanisms employed in Zimbabwe during drought seasons, although permanent relocation is only isolated. However, remittances contributed immensely in livelihood improvement in Buhera and Chikomba districts as families struggled with crop failure and the resulting food security (Mutasa 2010).

Substantial proportions of cash and/or in-kind remittances also exchanged hands in 2009 and “this is not surprising considering that over the last decade, the agricultural sector has experienced rapid decline, which, compounded by periodic droughts, have compromised food security and increased poverty levels” (Alvarez 2009:32). However, there were concerns in Buhera and Chikomba that not all of those who migrated were actually able to remit back to their families in the rural areas. In some cases, it was actually the rural dwellers who were ‘remitting’ food to the urban folk as a result of the political and economic crisis prevailing in Zimbabwe at the time. This puts weight to arguments against migration as a sustainable option to climate change.

A World Bank-commissioned paper also attributed pre-established labour migration to chronic drought conditions where families consider permanently changing location (Raleigh, Jordan & Salehyan, 2008). Temporary relocation, however, seems common in Africa. In the Sahel region, for example, ‘eating the dry season’ involves sending a family member, especially the young adults, to cities to look for employment during the dry season (IOM 2010). These would then remit their incomes.

Migration should, however, not be taken at face value without paying attention to its challenges, especially in cases where family members are separated for long periods. This is particularly problematic especially in societies with high HIV prevalence rates, as there is a tendency of people either engaging in extramarital relationships or starting new families wherever they relocate to, in addition to their families they will have left in their areas of origin. In such circumstances, their incomes are then divided further making the families more vulnerable to future exigencies.

Huge influxes of labour migrants are also potential causes of conflicts. The xenophobic attacks in South Africa in June 2008 are a horrific example. This is made worse by the fact that although Southern African Development Community member countries signed a protocol on the facilitation of movement of persons 2005, the individual states do not have comprehensive plans for the integration of migrants in their countries. This makes the migrants vulnerable to ill-treatment mainly because they “are taken as carriers of disease, takers of jobs and perpetrators of crime” (Zanamwe and Devillard 2010:79) and as such, they should be controlled and excluded.

Labour migration is usually rural-to-urban focused, and targets especially the economically productive individuals. “As a consequence, the majority of the remaining population in today’s rural areas is comprised of female or child-headed families, all of whom are extremely vulnerable to food insecurity manifested by climate change” (IOM 2011:6).

 

References

Alvarez, S. P (2009). The Flow, Impact and Regulatory Framework of Migrant Labour Remittances in Zimbabwe. Harare, International Organization for Migration

Bates, D. C (2002). Environmental Refugees? Classifying human migrations caused by environmental change. Population and Environment, Vol.23(5), pp.465-477

Brown, O (2007). Climate Change and Forced Migration: observations, projections and implications. In UNDP (2007). Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Change: human solidarity in a divided world. New York, Palgrave Macmillan

CEDRISA (2009). Droughts and Floods in Southern Africa: environmental change and human vulnerability. Nairobi, UNEP and SARDC

Iliffe, J (1990). Famine in Zimbabwe, 1890-1960. Gweru, Mambo Press

IOM (2010). Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change and Environmental Migration: a policy perspective. Geneva, IOM

IOM (2011). Cop 17 – South Africa Hosts the UN Climate Change Conference. IOM Regional News: Southern Africa, May 2011, p.6

Mayer, B (2011). Migration as a Sustainable Adaptation Strategy. Paper prepared for the second conference of the Initiation on Climate Adaptation Research and Understanding through the Social Sciences (ICARUS-II), May 5-8, 2011, Ann Arbor, Michigan

Mutasa, M (2010). Zimbabwe’s Drought Conundrum: vulnerability and coping in Buhera and Chikomba districts. Master thesis: http://brage.bibsys.no/umb/bitstream/URN:NBN:no-bibsys_brage_14491/1/Mukundi%20Mutasa%20Final%20Thesis.pdf

Raleigh, C; Jordan, L and Salehhyan, I (2008). Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration and Conflict. Washington DC, The World Bank

Stal, M (2011). Flooding and Relocation: the Zambezi River Valley in Mozambique. International Migration, Vol 41(S1), pp.e125-e145

UNEP. Climate Change and Environmentally Induced Migration: http://www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters/Policy/DisasterRiskReduction/ClimateChangeAndMigration/tabid/282/Default.aspx

Unganai, L (1994). Chronology of Droughts in Southern Africa: the impacts and future management options. SACCAR Newsletter, No. 28, December 1994, pp.8-17

Valy, B. (2007). Flooding: Mozambique better prepared this time. Southern African News Features, 07 (15): http://www.sardc.net/Editorial/Newsfeature/07160307.htm

Warner, K; Ehrhart, C; de Sherbinin, A; Adamo, S and Chai-Onn, T (2009). In Search of Shelter: mapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement. Geneva, CARE International

Zanamwe, L and Devillard, A (2010). Migration in Zimbabwe: a country profile 2009. Harare, IOM

Leave a Comment so far
Leave a comment